NH hasn't picked the eventual Republican nominee in the last two competitive primaries.

I worked for McCain for three months and, considering my brief tenure in his office, got to see the Senator in a variety of situations (almost every day, in fact) and came to know him reasonably well. I largely agree with your impression of his competence and honesty--but I would add that on a personal level, he really is not a nice man. Or to put it in other terms: McCain is perhaps worth voting for, but almost certainly not worth inviting to your monthly potluck

"Second, McCain seemed competent."

Are you serious? This is a man who has to ask an aide whether condoms prevent the spread of STDs - and that is after a 12 second pause to stammer for his own answer.

Maybe he knows what he know, but he is so far adrift from commonplace knowledge that it is frightening.

Let me join w/ tde above. McCain puts on a pretty good show at times but it's a show. I'm not sure he's "clean" either. He was part of the Keating 5 after all. He's no serious "maveric" either, consistantly voting pretty much exactly as you'd expect a far right-wing politician would except even more hawkishly. He's massively anti-choice, except for privilaged white women. He's principled, so long as he thinks it will help him (see his changes on Bob Jones, Jerry Fawell, etc.) He'd be a terrible president.

"New Hampshire is white, scarily devoid of people from other backgrounds."

So *that's* how Pat "Death of the West" Buchanan won the 1996 NH GOP primary.